Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2024 Oct 12 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 12-Oct 14 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1).
Oct 12 | Oct 13 | Oct 14 | |
---|---|---|---|
00-03UT | 3.67 | 3.67 | 4.00 |
03-06UT | 2.00 | 2.67 | 3.33 |
06-09UT | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2.67 |
09-12UT | 5.00 (G1) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
12-15UT | 4.33 | 1.67 | 2.00 |
15-18UT | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
18-21UT | 3.67 | 2.67 | 2.00 |
21-00UT | 4.00 | 3.33 | 2.67 |
Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, with a chance for an isolated G2 (Moderate) storm period, on 12 Oct as effects from a CME that left the sun on 09 Oct continue to wane.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Oct 12 | Oct 13 | Oct 14 | |
---|---|---|---|
S1 or greater | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels with a slight chance for a solar radiation storm event through 14 Oct as AR 3848 approaches the western limb.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Oct 11 2024 1633 UTC.
Oct 12 | Oct 13 | Oct 14 | |
---|---|---|---|
R1-R2 | 60% | 60% | 60% |
R3 or greater | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for R3 (Strong) events through 14 Oct.
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 304 |
SOHO EIT 284 |
Mauna Loa Solar Image |
The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
Latest LASCO Solar Corona Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). |
Real-Time Solar Wind Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
Solar X-ray Flux This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. |
Satellite Environment Plot The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. |
Solar Cycle
Sun Spot Number Progression This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. |
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression. |
Ap Progression This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. |
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun.
Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Northern Hemi Auroral Map |
Southern Hemi Auroral Map |
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
VHF and HF Band Conditions
Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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